“Back in the spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton owned shares in the South Sea Company, the hottest stock in England. Sensing that the market was getting out of hand, the great physicist muttered that he ‘could calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of the people.’ Newton dumped his South Sea shares, pocketing a 100% profit totaling £7,000. But just months later, swept up in the wild enthusiasm of the market, Newton jumped back in at a much higher price — and lost £20,000 (or more than $3 million in 2002-2003’s money. For the rest of his life, he forbade anyone to speak the words ‘South Sea’ in his presence.”
Qiziq voqea! 😁
1720-yil bahorida Isak Nyuton “Janubiy dengiz kompaniyasi” aksiyalari egasi bo’lgan ekan. Narxlar keskin o’sib aksiyalar qimmatlashgani bilan hamma xarid qilishga urinardi. Bu holatdan buyuk fizik bir fikrga keladi. “Fazoviy jismlar harakatini hisoblash mumkin ammo ahmoq insonlar fikrini bilib bo’lmaydi” va barcha aksiyalarini sotib 100% (£7,000) foyda bilan qoldi. Biroq bir oy o’tib, aksiyalar narxi oshayotganini kuzatgan olim, biroz avval o’zi tasvirlagan odamlar harakatidan qiziqib aksiyalarni qimmat narxda yana sotib oladi va £20,000 (2002-2003 yillar hisobida $3 million) pulidan ayriladi. Shundan keyin hayoti so’ngigacha unga Janubiy Dengiz so’zini aytishlarini taqiqladi.
Qiziq va xulosalar olish mumkin…
- Zamonamizning investorlari gurusi Vorren ?Baffet ustozi bo’lgan Benjamin Graham fikridan kelib chiqib eng kuchli olim ham xato qilishini va u takidlagandek ba’zida ahmoqlarcha harakat qilishi mumkinligini tushunamiz.
- Nafs har qanday foydani zararga aylantirishini tushunamiz.
- Ijtimoiy bosim qanchalik katta qudratga ega ekanligini ko’ramiz.